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China's Q1 GDP unreliable? PDF Print E-mail

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Monday, 25 May 2009

Today, China's Statistical Bureau released an article answering reporter's questions regarding a Wall Street Journal article on May 15 that questioned the reliability of China's official data of Q1 2009.


One accusation was the inconsistency between China's first quarter oil consumption, electricity consumption, and GDP growth. 


The Statistical Bureau's argument is that Q1 energy consumption growth of 3.0% and GDP growth rate of 6.1% is consistent directionally.  The non-proportional growth can be attributed to two factors.


One was the industrial structural change.  In Q1, the tertiary industry value added grew 7.4%, 2.1% higher than the secondary industry.  Its weight in GDP increased from 42.7% in Q1 2008 to 44.3% in Q1 2009.  Meanwhile, the total industry value added dropped from 46% of Q1 2008 to 44.1% of Q1 2009 in terms of GDP weight.


The second reason was the growth rate of energy intensive industries was slow but the growth rate of less energy intensive high-tech industries was high.  In Q1 2009, the top six energy intensive industries, accounted for about 63% of the total industry electricity consumption, grew 2.3%, 12.5% lower than the same period of last year.  Meanwhile, electricity consumption changed from 13.2% growth in Q1 2008 to 3.7% reduction in Q1 2009.  The 3.7% reduction was 1.1% lower than all the industries combined. 


The other acquisition was the inconsistency between GDP growth and trade growth.  On this, the Statistical Bureau's response is that GDP is calculated from investment, consumption, and international trade.  China's GDP growth in Q1 was mainly the result of boosting domestic consumption.

 
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