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June PMI shows 4th consecutive month of economic expansion PDF Print E-mail
Tuesday, 30 June 2009

According to a release by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, China's June PMI for the manufacturing sectors was 53.2%, 0.1% higher than the 53.1% of May.  As can be seen from the chart below, the manufacturing PMI has stayed above 50 for 4 consecutive months, indicating China's economy has been expanding continuously.  The lowest PMI was in November, when it stood at 38.8%. The PMI for non-manufacturing is not released yet.


The manufacturing PMI is a weighted average of 5 sub-indexes.  Following the international convention, a reading above 50 suggests expansion, while one below 50 indicates contraction.  At individual index level, only the indexes for inventory orders, finished inventory, import, and raw material inventory were below 50, all other indexes were above 50, especially for production, new orders, and purchasing prices.  Among the 20 industries covered by the index, the sub-index value was below 50 for 6 industries.


According to Mr. Zhang Liquan, an analyst, the fact that June PMI maintained above 50 and increased a little shows that China's economy has been expanding.  Based upon the data from January to May, it is basically certain that China's economy has bottomed out and the growth rate in June will be higher.

 

 

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