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China's PMI up for 5th straight month - update PDF Print E-mail

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Sunday, 03 May 2009

On May 1, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) released China's April PMI for the manufacturing sector.  The manufacturing industry's PMI (MPMI) was 53.5, compared with March's 52.4.  The non-manufacturing sectors' PMI (NPMI) for April was 59.0, according to the data released on May 3, and its March reading was 55.7.  As can be seen from the chart below (compiled by Sinolize.com from CFLP's monthly release), this is the fifth straight month that the MPMI has been going up, though it is only the second time it reached above 50.  The lowest MPMI was in November, when it stood at 38.8.  The NPMI is more volatile, but it is highly correlated with the MPMI and the general trend is also going up.  The big deviation was the February number of 41.9 (whether this is just an outlier or not remains to be seen).  Otherwise, the pattern would have been very consistent with that of the MPMI.  

 

Either MPMI or NPMI, a reading of above 50 suggests expansion, while one below 50 indicates contraction.

 

The MPMI is, following international convention, a weighted average of 5 indices that measure economic performance. The survey, jointly conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), covers purchasing and supply managers of more than 700 manufacturers across China.  The NPMI consists of 10 sub- indices like business activity, new business orders, new export orders, inventory, employment, future expectation, and so on.

 

China started to publish its first MPMI in September 2005, but the data was not consecutively published until August 2006.  The NPMI was only started from January 2008.

 
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