On May 16, Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics said at a forum that based upon the first four months of data, the 8% growth rate is still achievable, though very difficult.

Yao concluded the above based upon his investment, consumption, and export demand analysis.

First, investment has maintained strong growth.Due to the government’s proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, China's investment market is dynamic.At present, China's investment has three characteristics: rapid growth in infrastructure; significant increase in new projects; higher investment growth rate in the central and western.

Second, consumer confidence was significantly higher than anticipated, future consumption remains positive.In April, China's total retail sales of consumer goods grew 14.8%.In particular, the automobile industry growth rate was significantly high, due to government's macro-control.

Third, China's exports dropped 25.7 percent in February, 17.1% in March, and 22.6 percent in April year-on-year.However, calculated by working days, April export growth was 6.9% higher than March, which was also higher than February.Although the overall downward trend remains, the speed has been slowing down month-on-month. Given the grim situation in export, the fundamental growth has to come from the domestic market.

Source:  国际金融报