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China has 32 trillion yuan of projects under construction PDF Print E-mail

Saturday, 15 August 2009

According to the National Development and Reform Commission, 205,716 new projects got started in the first 7 months, an increase of 61,249 from the same period of last year. Meanwhile, 308,914 projects were under construction, 70,459 more than the last year.  Planned investment for all the new projects was 8.56 trillion yuan, jumped 83.1% year on year.  The planned total investment for all the projects under construction was 32.59 trillion yuan, up 36.4% from last year.

To put things in perspective, China's GDP was 13.99 trillion yuan in the first half, according to the initial release by the National Statistical Bureau.  Whatever measurement you use, it is clear that China's growth relied too much on new project development and this is not sustainable.  If this trend is not contained, there will be increased risk of bad projects, which transfers to bad investments, which transfers to bad bank loans, and which means the systemic risks of the whole banking industry.

Even though China has wowed to maintain modestly loose monetary policy, it has started to emphasize the need of balancing growth and potential risks.  Banks have recently been asked to improve risk management capabilities and issue loans more prudently.

 
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